TrendForce: inventory levels continue to rise, NOR Flash prices may fall in the second half of the year

According to the latest survey conducted by TrendForce Semiconductor Research Center (DRAMeXchange), since the beginning of the year, due to the low client inventory and customer concerns about the COVID-19 epidemic, the NORFlash market has been pulling goods, driving the NORFlash rally to continue. To the second season. The overall average price increased by about 5% in the first quarter, and the price increase in the second quarter further expanded by about 10-20%.
　　
At present, the buyer's inventory level has reached a relatively satisfactory stage, and countries are restarting economic activities one after another under economic pressure, but the consumption power of terminal retailing cannot immediately recover, so the follow-up price trend of NORFlash is not optimistic, TrendForce estimates, NORFlash third quarter quotation Will turn down.
　　
The 5G demand variable increases, and SLCFlash, which has high linkage with NORFlash, expands in the second half of the year
　　
TrendForce pointed out that the prices of NORFlash and SLCFlash have long been highly linked. Observing the supply and demand of SLCNAND, consumer-related demand has weakened since April, and another major demand-Netcom products, although benefiting from China's continued active deployment of 5G, the original order visibility has reached the third quarter, but due to the construction of Europe and the United States The schedule has been delayed due to the epidemic situation, and the United States has further imposed sanctions on Huawei, including Fiberhome Technology on the trade ban list and effective from June 5. Although the initial inventory is available, it adds variables to the fourth quarter. TrendForce estimates that the price of SLCNAND in the third quarter may turn into a small decline. In the fourth quarter, due to the lack of support in demand, the price decline may increase.
　　
NORFlash is widely used, and the quality and output of the land plant are significantly improved
　　
From the analysis of process and application, in recent years, large-capacity NORFlash has been from 65nm to 50nm, and small-capacity NORFlash has stayed at 65nm or a more backward process. In the application field, one of the most popular applications in recent years is TWS (True Wireless Bluetooth Headset). The capacity of Apple’s AirPods for NOR usage reaches 128Mb. The remaining TWS product capacity requirements are also between 16Mb and 64Mb. ; The Internet of Things has a large demand for NORFlash. Because this field is mostly a closed embedded system, the required capacity is not large, and the NORFlash capacity is relatively small. 8/16/32Mb is in line with the needs of this field; the other is the application of AMOLED In order to control the consistency of the display quality, the panel factory will maintain a certain display level through the De-Mura method, and also needs to match a NORFlash to store the program code. Currently, 4/8Mb is mainly used.
　　
Observe the layout of the top three companies in the NORFlash revenue market. Macronix, the market leader, is relatively leading in the industry in the process. It is currently produced using a 55nm process with a monthly capacity of about 20K. As the company's NORFlash product line is complete, from low capacity to high capacity, especially for the business opportunities of 5G base stations in the future, 512Mb NORFlash will be one of Macron's main products, providing large-capacity solutions for the few in the industry. Winbond, the second-ranked company, is closely followed, currently using a 58/90nm process with a monthly capacity of approximately 18K. Ranked third is China’s Zhaoyi Innovation. In recent years, it has made significant advances in terms of product quality and output. It has even won Apple’s AirPods orders. Its R&D strength has been affirmed. Its monthly production capacity is about 9K. SMIC (SIMC) and Huali Microchip production. It is worth noting that Zhaoyi Innovation Group also includes Changxin Storage (CXMT), which means that Zhaoyi Innovation Group has the independent research and development capabilities of China's NORFlash and DRAM, playing an important role in the development of China's semiconductor.