According to the newly released memory price report, the demand for smart phones in the third quarter is not as good as expected, and the orders in overseas markets are shrinking sharply. In addition, the server market is disrupted by the Sino-US trade friction, and the overall memory terminal demand is not as good. expected.
DRAM and NAND Flash continue to decline.
The decline in NAND Flash is more convergent, mainly because the previous manufacturers reduced their production capacity mainly in NAND Flash, including Toshiba, Western Digital, Hynix and Micron. In addition, after several quarters of price declines, the operating profit margins of various NAND Flash manufacturers have been low. Less than 3%.
The DRAM segment also has room for price declines, so the price decline is significantly higher than NAND Flash. In June, DRAM prices fell again from May, with a range of 8-9%. In the second quarter, the overall DRAM average price was 28% lower than the first quarter, and the decline was higher than expected. Looking forward to the third quarter and the fourth quarter of the second half of the year, we believe that the price declines in the two quarters ranged from 10-15% to Reflecting the semiconductor industry in the second half of the year.
In terms of flash memory, due to Toshiba Memory's power plant jump on the 15th of this month, it was nearly seven days after the shutdown, and it was gradually resumed. In addition to the damage to the wafer-in-process (WIP), it is necessary to carefully check the impact of potential wafer and equipment damage due to power outages. Toshiba officially released the news that it is expected to fully resume normal production in mid-July, so that its partner, Western Digital, is the first to announce that the price of flash memory products will increase by about 10-15% from July. The bleak flash memory market has added firewood. We initially estimated that this jump will affect the flash memory capacity of the Toshiba/Western Fold camp for about one month. However, considering that the inventory level from the channel end and the channel supplier to the flash memory supplier is maintained at a relatively high level, the follow-up third-quarter flash price trend will depend on the new mobile phone order in the second half of the year and the progress of Toshiba's return to work. But what is certain is that the flash memory price will rise in July and August in a short period of time, and it is also a life-saving rain for the flash supplier.