The foundry leader TSMC will hold a conference on the 16th. Foreign investment is optimistic. Although this season is the traditional off-season, it is expected that the off-season is not off this season, driven by demand from major customers such as AMD, Huawei and MediaTek. It is estimated that the first quarter revenue season will be reduced by less than 5%.
According to TSMC's previously announced outlook for the fourth quarter of 2019, operating revenues ranged from US $ 102.1 billion to US $ 10.3 billion, operating gross margins were 48-50%, and net operating margins were 37% -39%. The possible variable is the exchange rate between the US dollar and the New Taiwan dollar. TSMC previously calculated the US dollar against the New Taiwan dollar at 30.6 yuan, but at the end of last year, the exchange rate has seen a "two prefix", which may have an impact on TSMC's profit. It is expected that it will be Focus.
Foreign investment believes that due to the rebound in semiconductor demand in the fourth quarter of last year, full load below 16 nanometers, the 12-inch capacity utilization rate is less than 90% except 28 nanometers, and the rest are higher than 90%. The 8-inch capacity utilization rate is close to 95%. Quarterly revenue will be the peak of the year, rewriting the new record.
TSMC's 7-nanometer process includes all first-line customers. The top three customers are Apple, Huawei, and Qualcomm. The industry believes that because TSMC's advanced process yield is much better than competitors, it is expected that after mass production of 5-nanometer process, Huawei, Apple, etc. High-end mobile phone AP will shift the manufacturing process to 5 nanometers; industry insiders pointed out that TSMC's 5-nanometer process yield improvement progress is better than expected, and 10,000 pieces of production capacity are currently undergoing previous verification and research and development of products. It is expected to be built in the first quarter of this year. The installed capacity is estimated to reach 30,000 pieces, which will be increased to 45,000 pieces in the second quarter and mass production.