ICInsights pointed out that since 1983, there have been six declines in capital expenditures in the global semiconductor industry, and five of them have been restored for two years. Therefore, with the weaker semiconductor market this year, it is estimated that semiconductor manufacturers will adopt a conservative policy on capital expenditure budget until next year.
ICInsights statistics show that in the past 34 years, 1985-1986, 1992, 1997-1998, 2001-2002, 2008-2009, 2012-2013 and other six periods, the semiconductor industry capital expenditures have a 2-digit percentage decline.
Observed that between 1983 and 2010, expenditures fell by at least 45% in two years after the decline in capital expenditures. ICInsights pointed out that most semiconductor manufacturers will reduce their expenditures during the economic slowdown, waiting for performance to improve. After the 4-6 season, the capital expenditure will be greatly increased.
The International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) also previously extended the downward revision of the global fab equipment spending forecast for 2019, from a 14% decline to a 19% decline, but believes that there will be a rebound in 2020, which is expected to grow by 20%.
On the other hand, Micron said at a recent earnings report that capital expenditures in 2020 will be lower than this year. ICInsights believes that US storage giant Micron is relatively conservative looking at capital expenditures next year, as well as market prospects. This attitude is roughly the same as the trend of the semiconductor industry.
In order to cope with the downturn in the market, the DRAM factory South Asia Branch lowered the expenditure budget several times. The latest one estimate is that the capital expenditure for the whole year will be about NT$7 billion.
However, the semiconductor index factory TSMC is in the pursuit of technology leadership and the previous layout of advanced processes into mass production, this year's capital expenditure is expected to be about 10-11 billion US dollars, of which 80% will be used in advanced processes such as 7, 5, 3 nanometers, 10% used in Advanced packaging and testing, another 10% for special processes. Financial officer He Limei said that capital expenditures in the next few years will continue to maintain a high level of 10 billion US dollars to 12 billion US dollars.