Affected by the decline in seasonal shipments and the gradual decline in prices, the South Asian Division of Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) factory announced on the 3rd that it has combined NT $ 4.263 billion in revenue in November (the same applies hereinafter), a monthly decrease of 5.73%. The annual decrease is 21.10%, which is a new low of nearly 5 months.
In the third quarter, Nanyake's revenue was 14.799 billion yuan, and the current cumulative revenue in October and November was about 8.785 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.57% compared with the same period last year. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, general manager Li Peiying said recently that demand for product lines such as mobile phones, PCs, and consumer electronics is heating up. It is expected that single-quarter revenue will be flat to a slight decline compared with the third quarter, and the off-season will not be weak.
In terms of prices, Li Peiying is optimistic that the original inventory of the fourth quarter will gradually return to health. DRAM prices are expected to be flat or slightly up or down compared with the third quarter, and optimistic that the original capital expenditure is relatively conservative, and prices are expected to rebound in the first quarter of next year.
Nanyake's consolidated revenue for the first 11 months of this year was 47.397 billion yuan, a decrease of 40.67% over the same period last year. Looking forward to the whole year, Li Peiying said that with the continuous growth of demand in various application market blocks, the annual bit sales volume is expected to grow by 11-13%, which is close to the overall market demand growth rate.
As for the production capacity of major international DRAM manufacturers next year, the research and development organization DRAMeXchange pointed out recently that Samsung has no plans to increase the number of films in the first half of next year. At present, capital expenditure is only planned to purchase new machines for transfer to 1Z. Nano process. SK Hynix will reduce capital expenditures next year, which means that the supply growth rate next year will slow down compared with this year; although Micron Semiconductor has not announced the capital expenditure plan for next year, it is also expected to be more conservative than this year.
As for the impact of the development of the mainland DRAM industry, Chinbang believes that although Hefei Changxin announced that it will officially introduce mass production at the end of this year, the initial capacity planning is still very conservative. It is estimated that the real volume will be fastest by the end of next year, and the overall yield improvement of the land DRAM industry is still It will take some time, and it will have limited contribution to the overall DRAM industry bit supply growth in 2020.