Japan-Korea trade war started, exploding NAND and DRAM double-up effect

Japan controls the three major electronics industry's key consumables to export to South Korea, the global memory leader Samsung executives urgently went to Japan to negotiate, and internally launched an emergency response plan, which will prioritize inventory consumables for profitable spindle DRAM production, reducing the current lack of profit kinetic energy. The NANDFlash filmings have reduced production by more than 20%. Taiwan's Wanghong, Winbond, Qunlian and other NAND groups will enjoy low-price inventory price increases.

Memory industry analysts, Samsung's global NAND market accounted for more than 30%, this reduction of more than 20% of output, equal to the global reduction of more than 6% to 8% supply, plus Toshiba NAND plant last month by strong earthquakes affected capacity estimated 3% In total, global NAND output will decrease by nearly 10% this month, and Micron also announced that it will reduce production of 50% of NAND chips this season. It is expected that NAND chips will be out of stock and prices will be reduced due to rapid inventory digestion and sharp reduction in future supply. Ending the decline for more than two years.

The memory industry revealed that Samsung had increased its NAND price by about 10% after the strong earthquake stoppage at the Toshiba factory. The sharp reduction in Samsung's production will result in a strong NAND rush to attract goods and drive prices further. If Japan-Korea trade negotiations are deadlocked, the DRAM contract price will also rebound in the next quarter, and there will be a “double up” effect of NAND and DRAM.

With the rebound in quotation, Wanghong and Winbond, which have NAND chip manufacturing capabilities in China, will be the main beneficiaries; the memory modules Weigang, Transcend, Shiyan, Qunlian, Apacer and Guangying will have a peak season effect. Obviously, operations are expected to increase significantly.

Samsung is quite nervous about Japan's control of three key consumables such as fluorine polyimide, photoresist and hydrogen fluoride. Li Zaijun, vice president of Samsung Electronics, personally went to Japan to negotiate supply for the day. The Yonhap News Agency reported on the 14th that Li Zaijun told a high-level executive’s visit to Japan at a special meeting held at Samsung on the 13th. Sufficient fluoropolyimide, photoresist and hydrogen fluoride, but he also asked Samsung to prepare an internal contingency plan.

According to memory channel vendors, Samsung's internal plan is to stock the existing photoresists such as photoresist and hydrogen fluoride, and to give priority to DRAM products with good profitability, and to reduce the production of NAND chips near the cost edge. 30%, homeopathic digestion of NAND stocks and increase the quotation.