After Trump said at the G20 summit that "American companies can continue to sell parts to Huawei," 5G concept stocks opened sharply on Monday, and most investors were optimistic that "Huawei lifted the ban." The skyrocketing creation of this misreading is ridiculous.
In fact, "Trump is a person who turned his face faster than flipping a book." After seeing Trump's position, many insiders told reporters: "Trump's credit is zero. Regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, The US technical blockade against China barely sees the possibility of braking."
In fact, after Trump’s statement, US government officials have made it clear to the US media that Huawei has not removed the “entity list” and that US companies’ supply to Huawei is still subject to the Export Control Regulations. Only products approved by the Ministry of Commerce can be sold to Huawei. However, the premise of approval is that “the product will not pose a threat to the US country”, and there is no clear approval standard.
Previously, companies including Intel, Qualcomm, and Micron have found ways to restore some of their supply to Huawei. According to the Export Control Regulations, non-US manufactured goods. If the value of US technology is less than 25%, these products may not. Subject to the Export Control Regulations, Huawei will resume partial supply. However, there are also uncertainties in this way, which may be rejected by the Ministry of Commerce.
Obviously, as long as Huawei is still on the list of entities, it will not be lifted. Trump’s statement is just a statement, and he may turn his face at any time.
At the end of 2017, Trump visited China on the eve of the Sino-US trade war and reached a $250 billion commercial agreement in China. However, this huge agreement failed to alleviate the trade friction between China and the United States for several months. Trump praised the outcome of the talks, but immediately returned to the United States and signed a memorandum to announce tariff increases on China's $60 billion.
Subsequently, the U.S. government turned its face to ZTE and once again restricted exports to ZTE, which has paid a fine of 1.19 billion U.S. dollars for rectification. Subsequently, China and the United States held consultations on the ZTE plan. ZTE paid another $1 billion in fines and $400 million to guarantee the future.
Although it is not certain what concessions China has made to keep ZTE, it is clear that the US government has tasted the sweetness of the technology blockade through export controls. In order to obtain greater benefits, Trump aimed at Huawei, which is far more important than ZTE.
In May 2019, Trump turned his face again during Sino-US trade negotiations. On May 3, he announced that "China and the United States are close to reaching a historic trade agreement," but on May 5, they said they would add $325 billion to China. A 25% tariff is imposed. Ten days later, the US Department of Commerce announced that Huawei and its subsidiaries were included in the list of entities. Obviously, the blockade of Huawei is the most important bargaining chip for Trump trade negotiations.
In the early days of the negotiations, he stated to the media that "American companies can continue to supply to Huawei", and perhaps Trump's negotiation skills. Trump mentioned in his presidential campaign speech that "we need a leader who wrote "The Art of Trading." In fact, this is the Trump autobiography published in 1987, which was for 48 consecutive weeks. Listed in the New York Times bestseller list.
"The Art of Trading" mentions Trump's many "giving the most daring goals", "considering the worst outcomes", "continuing pressure on opponents to get the most benefits" and other tactics, rogue means, and in China and the United States. These techniques are also frequently performed in trade negotiations.
Obviously, Trump is putting pressure on China through sanctions, and Trump can't stop it until he has enough benefits. Although the industry has widely spread the misunderstanding of “Huawei lifting the ban”, at least most of the industry insiders have always understood that they cannot pin their hopes on Trump.